A Nomogram for Predicting Delayed Viral Shedding in Non-Severe SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Infection.

Purpose: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has emerged as a significant global concern, characterized by its rapid transmission and resistance to existing treatments and vaccines. However, the specific hematological and biochemical factors that may impact the clearance of Omicron variant infection remain unclear. The present study aimed to identify easily accessible laboratory markers that are associated with prolonged virus shedding in non-severe patients with COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant. Patients and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 882 non-severe COVID-19 patients who were diagnosed with the Omicron variant in Shanghai between March and June 2022. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used for feature selection and dimensional reduction, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to construct a nomogram for predicting the risk of prolonged SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity lasting for more than 7 days. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curves were used to assess predictive discrimination and accuracy, with bootstrap validation. Results: Patients were randomly divided into derivation (70%, n = 618) and validation (30%, n = 264) cohorts. Optimal independent markers for prolonged viral shedding time (VST) over 7 days were identified as Age, C-reactive protein (CRP), platelet count, leukocyte count, lymphocyte count, and eosinophil count. These factors were subsequently incorporated into the nomogram utilizing bootstrap validation. The area under the curve (AUC) in the derivation (0.761) and validation (0.756) cohorts indicated good discriminative ability. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the nomogram-predicted and actual patients with VST over 7 days. Conclusion: Our study confirmed six factors associated with delayed VST in non-severe SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection and constructed a Nomogram which may assist non-severely affected patients to better estimate the appropriate length of self-isolation and optimize their self-management strategies.

Different effects of vaccine on VST in critical and non-critical COVID-19 patients: A retrospective study of 363 cases.

Aim: To explore the risk factors of prolonged viral shedding time (VST) in critical/non-critical COVID-19 patients during hospitalization. Methods: In this retrospective study, we enrolled 363 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted in a designated hospital during the COVID-19 outbreak in Nanjing Lukou International Airport. Patients were divided into critical (n = 54) and non-critical (n = 309) groups. We analyzed the relationship between the VST and demographics, clinical characteristics, medications, and vaccination histories, respectively. Results: The median duration of VST was 24 d (IQR, 20-29) of all patients. The VST of critical cases was longer than non-critical cases (27 d, IQR, 22.0-30.0 vs. 23 d, IQR 20-28, P < 0.05). Cox proportional hazards model showed that ALT (HR = 1.610, 95%CI 1.186-2.184, P = 0.002) and EO% (HR = 1.276, 95%CI 1.042-1.563, P = 0.018) were independent factors of prolonged VST in total cases; HGB (HR = 0.343, 95%CI 0.162-0.728, P = 0.005) and ALP (HR = 0.358, 95%CI 0.133-0.968, P = 0.043) were independent factors of prolonged VST in critical cases, while EO% (HR = 1.251, 95%CI 1.015-1.541, P = 0.036) was the independent factor of prolonged VST in non-critical cases. Vaccinated critical cases showed higher levels of SARS-CoV-2-IgG (1.725 S/CO, IQR 0.3975-28.7925 vs 0.07 S/CO, IQR 0.05-0.16, P < 0.001) and longer VSTs (32.5 d, IQR 20.0-35.25 vs 23 d, IQR 18.0-30.0, P = 0.011) compared with unvaccinated critical patients. Fully vaccinated non-critical cases, however, presented higher levels of SARS-CoV-2-IgG (8.09 S/CO, IQR 1.6975-55.7825 vs 0.13 S/CO IQR 0.06-0.41, P < 0.001) and shorter VSTs (21 d, IQR 19.0-28.0 vs 24 d, IQR 21.0-28.5, P = 0.013) compared with unvaccinated non-critical patients. Conclusions: Our results suggested that risk factors of prolonged VST were different between critical and non-critical COVID-19 patients. Increased level of SARS-CoV-2-IgG and vaccination did not shorten the VST and hospital stay in critical COVID-19 patients.

Analysis of factors influencing viral shedding time in elderly patients with mild and asymptomatic Omicron infection.

Objective To analyze the potential factors influencing the viral shedding time (duration of nucleic acid positivity) in elderly patients with mild and asymptomatic infection. Methods The clinical data of 1141 elderly (>=60 years) patients with mild and asymptomatic Omicron infection who were admitted to National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai) Cabin Hospital from April 14, 2022 to May 1, 2022 were retrospectively collected, viral shedding time of patients were compared between different groups (age, gender, number of vaccination, hypertension, diabetes). Pearson analysis was adopted to analyze the relationship between age and viral shedding time. Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were used to evaluate the viral shedding time in elderly patients with different clinical characteristics. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model was adopted to analyze the factors influencing viral shedding time in elderly patients with Omicron. Results Among 1441 patients, 791(54.9%) males and 650(45.1%) females. There were 513(35.6%) patients receiving 0 dose of vaccine, 29(2.0%) patients received 1 dose of vaccine, 405(28.1%) patients received 2 doses of vaccine, 494(34.3%) patients received 3 doses of vaccine. Compared with patients aged 60 to 70 years, patients aged 70 to 80 years had longer viral shedding time (P<0.001). The viral shedding time in patients with hypertension and diabetes was longer than that in patients without hypertension and diabetes (P<0.05). In terms of vaccination, the viral shedding time of patients receiving 2 or 3 doses of vaccine was significantly shorter than that of patients receiving 1 dose of vaccine or none (P<0.05). There was a positive correlation between patient age and viral shedding time, with an R2=0.029 (P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier curve showed that there existed significant difference in viral shedding time between the patients with different vaccination doses (P<0.001), and patients with age >=70, hypertension and diabetes were all associated with prolonged viral shedding time (P<0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that the age >=70 years was a risk factor for prolonged viral shedding time, and 2 or 3 doses of vaccine was a protective factor for prolonged viral shedding time (P<0.05). Conclusions Among the elderly population, the viral shedding time would gradually increase with age. Patients who received >=2 doses of vaccine would have reduced viral shedding time compared with those who received <2 doses of vaccine.Copyright © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.

Inactivated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose shortened the viral shedding time of patients infected with the Omicron variant BA.2.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the effect of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine boosting immunization on the viral shedding time for patients infected with the Omicron variant BA.2. METHODS: We performed a real-world study by analyzing the outbreak data of patients infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant BA.2 from March to May 2022 in Shanghai, China. Patients were categorized into three groups, including not fully vaccinated (zero and one dose), fully vaccinated (two doses), and booster-vaccinated (three doses). RESULTS: A total of 4443 patients infected with COVID-19 were included in the analysis. The proportion of viral shedding within 14 days in the three groups was 94.7%, 95.5%, and 96.7%, respectively (P <0.001). After adjusting for sex, age, underlying conditions, and clinical symptoms, the booster vaccination had a 29% increased possibility (hazard ratio: 1.29, 95% confidence interval: 1.18-1.41) of no detectable viral shedding within 14 days, whereas the fully vaccinated group had an 11% increased possibility of no detectable viral shedding (hazard ratio: 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.23). The effect of booster vaccination was more significant in males, the elderly, and people with underlying conditions or symptomatic infections. CONCLUSION: Our study confirmed that the booster vaccination could significantly shorten the viral shedding time of patients infected with the Omicron variant BA.2.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors analysis of viral shedding time in mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection in Shanghai.

Objective: To analyze the clinical characteristics and risk factors of viral shedding time in mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant (BA.2 and BA2.2) infection in Shanghai, and the effect of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) treatment, so as to provide a reference basis for epidemic prevention, control and clinical treatment. Methods: A total of 6,134 asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic Omicron-infected patients admitted to Tianhua Road fangcang shelter hospital in Jinshan, Shanghai, between April 2022 and May 2022 were included. Demographic characteristics and clinical histories were collected and compared in subgroups according to the different durations of viral shedding. Spearman's correlation analysis was performed to explore the association between virus shedding time and clinical variables. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate the risk factors for viral shedding time. Result: Most patients with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic Omicron infection were male, and more than half of patients had a viral shedding time of 8-15 days. The patients were divided into three groups according to the time of viral shedding: short-duration (≤ 7 days), intermediate-duration (8-15 days) and long-duration group (≥16 days). The proportion of patients aged ≤ 29 years was the highest in the short-duration group (30.2%), whereas the proportion of patients aged 50-64 yeas was the highest in the long-duration group (37.9%). The proportion of patients with the chronic non-communicable diseases among the short-, intermediate- and long-duration groups was 6.2, 9.4, and 14.9%, respectively. Among them, hypertension was the most found (4.9, 7.8, and 11.7%, respectively). By multivariate analyses, we identified that viral shedding time of Omicron variants was independently negatively correlated with male patients, TCM treatment, and manual laborers, while it was independently positively associated with age and hypertension. Additionally, TCM treatment could significantly shorten the length of viral shedding time, especially for men, age ≥30 years, comorbid chronic non-communicable diseases, unemployed people and manual worker. Conclusions: Our results suggested that age and hypertension were independent risk factors for the duration of viral shedding in asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic omicron infected patients. TCM can effectively shorten viral shedding time.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict failure of 14-day negative nucleic acid conversion in adults with non-severe COVID-19 during the Omicron surge: a retrospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: With the variability in emerging data, guidance on the isolation duration for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the Omicron variant is controversial. This study aimed to determine the predictors of prolonged viral RNA shedding in patients with non-severe COVID-19 and construct a nomogram to predict patients at risk of 14-day PCR conversion failure. METHODS: Adult patients with non-severe COVID-19 were enrolled from three hospitals of eastern China in Spring 2022. Viral shedding time (VST) was defined as either the day of the first positive test or the day of symptom onset, whichever was earlier, to the date of the first of two consecutively negative PCR tests. Patients from one hospital (Cohort I, n = 2033) were randomly grouped into training and internal validation sets. Predictors of 14-day PCR conversion failure were identified and a nomogram was developed by multivariable logistic regression using the training dataset. Two hospitals (Cohort II, n = 1596) were used as an external validation set to measure the performance of this nomogram. RESULTS: Of the 2033 patients from Cohort I, the median VST was 13.0 (interquartile range: 10.0‒16.0) days; 716 (35.2%) lasted > 14 days. In the training set, increased age [per 10 years, odds ratio (OR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15‒1.45, P < 0.001] and high Charlson comorbidity index (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.08‒1.46, P = 0.004) were independent risk factors for VST > 14 days, whereas full or boosted vaccination (OR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.42‒0.95, P = 0.028) and antiviral therapy (OR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.31‒0.96, P = 0.040) were protective factors. These predictors were used to develop a nomogram to predict VST > 14 days, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.73 in the training set (AUC, 0.74 in internal validation set; 0.76 in external validation set). CONCLUSIONS: Older age, increasing comorbidities, incomplete vaccinations, and lack of antiviral therapy are risk factors for persistent infection with Omicron variant for > 14 days. A nomogram based on these predictors could be used as a prediction tool to guide treatment and isolation strategies.

Factors associated with prolonged viral shedding in older patients infected with Omicron BA.2.2.

Background: This study explores the risk factors associated with viral shedding time in elderly Chinese patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) omicron. Methods: Participants infected with SARS-CoV-2 omicron were enrolled in a retrospective study, and divided into two groups according to shedding time (≥10 days, "late clearance group" and <10 days, "early clearance group"). Results: A total of 180 patients were enrolled in the study (88 early, 92 late), with a median viral shedding time of 10 days and a mean age of 77.02 years. Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 omicron shedding was associated with old age (p = 0.007), lack of vaccination (p = 0.001), delayed admission to hospital after onset of diagnosis (p = 0.001), D-dimer (p = 0.003), and methylprednisolone treatment (p = 0.048). In multivariate analysis, vaccination (OR, 0.319, 95% CI, 0.130-0.786, p = 0.013), Paxlovid (OR, 0.259, 95% CI, 0.104-0.643, p = 0.004), and time from onset of diagnosis to admission (OR, 1.802, 95% CI, 1.391-2.355, p = 0.000) were significantly associated with viral clearance. Conclusions: Time from onset of diagnosis to hospitalization, lack of treatment with Paxlovid, and lack of vaccination were independent risk factors in elderly Chinese patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 omicron for prolonged viral shedding.

Analysis of factors influencing viral shedding time in elderly patients with mild and asymptomatic Omicron infection

Objective To analyze the potential factors influencing the viral shedding time (duration of nucleic acid positivity) in elderly patients with mild and asymptomatic infection. Methods The clinical data of 1141 elderly (>=60 years) patients with mild and asymptomatic Omicron infection who were admitted to National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai) Cabin Hospital from April 14, 2022 to May 1, 2022 were retrospectively collected, viral shedding time of patients were compared between different groups (age, gender, number of vaccination, hypertension, diabetes). Pearson analysis was adopted to analyze the relationship between age and viral shedding time. Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were used to evaluate the viral shedding time in elderly patients with different clinical characteristics. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model was adopted to analyze the factors influencing viral shedding time in elderly patients with Omicron. Results Among 1441 patients, 791(54.9%) males and 650(45.1%) females. There were 513(35.6%) patients receiving 0 dose of vaccine, 29(2.0%) patients received 1 dose of vaccine, 405(28.1%) patients received 2 doses of vaccine, 494(34.3%) patients received 3 doses of vaccine. Compared with patients aged 60 to 70 years, patients aged 70 to 80 years had longer viral shedding time (P<0.001). The viral shedding time in patients with hypertension and diabetes was longer than that in patients without hypertension and diabetes (P<0.05). In terms of vaccination, the viral shedding time of patients receiving 2 or 3 doses of vaccine was significantly shorter than that of patients receiving 1 dose of vaccine or none (P<0.05). There was a positive correlation between patient age and viral shedding time, with an R2=0.029 (P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier curve showed that there existed significant difference in viral shedding time between the patients with different vaccination doses (P<0.001), and patients with age >=70, hypertension and diabetes were all associated with prolonged viral shedding time (P<0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that the age >=70 years was a risk factor for prolonged viral shedding time, and 2 or 3 doses of vaccine was a protective factor for prolonged viral shedding time (P<0.05). Conclusions Among the elderly population, the viral shedding time would gradually increase with age. Patients who received >=2 doses of vaccine would have reduced viral shedding time compared with those who received <2 doses of vaccine. Copyright © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.

Comorbidities prolonged viral shedding of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant in Shanghai: A multi-center, retrospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: As the omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) surges amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there is limited comorbidities data associated with viral shedding time (VST). We aimed to investigate the effect of comorbidities on VST in asymptomatic and mild patients with omicron. METHODS: A multi-center, retrospective, observational study was conducted from March 12, 2022 to May 24, 2022 in Shanghai. The analysis was adjusted for patients' baseline demographic, using log-rank test and logistic regression model. RESULTS: The study enrolled 198,262 subjects. The median duration of viral shedding time (VST) was 8.29 days. The number of cumulative viral shedding events was significantly lower in the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hyperlipidemia, diabetes, urinary system disease, and cardiocerebrovascular disease than in the no corresponding comorbidities group. Patients with comorbidities had a lower incidence of viral shedding, and the most significant independent risk factor is COPD (aOR 1.78, 95% CI: 1.53-2.08, p < 0.001). Across different age ranges, the comorbidities affecting viral shedding also differ, with the greatest risk factors for viral shedding being hyperlipidemia (aOR 2.23, 95% CI: 1.50-3.31, p < 0.001) and COPD (aOR 1.85, 95% CI: 1.50-2.28, p < 0.001) between ages of 18-39 and 40-64, and thyroid dysfunction (aOR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.60-3.47, p < 0.001) above age 64. CONCLUSIONS: Omicron-infected patients with comorbidities might prolong the VST. The independent risk factors also differ across age ranges, suggesting that providing targeted effective prevention and control guidance and allocating appropriate resources to different populations should be a crucial strategy.

Interferon α-2b spray shortened viral shedding time of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: An open prospective cohort study.

Background: The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant has spread quickly worldwide due to its effects on virus transmission and vaccine effectiveness. Interferon(IFN) has been shown to have a protective effect against SARS-CoV because of its broad antiviral activity. This study aimed to analyze the treatment effects of IFN α-2b spray in virus clearance of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant. Methods: We examined the effectiveness and safety of IFN α-2b spray in Shanghai, China, with participants infected with the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in an open, prospective cohort study from April 16th to May 5th, 2022. Results: A total of 871 confirmed patients were enrolled in this study. Four hundred and thirteen patients were allocated to the IFN α-2b spray group, and 458 patients were allocated to the control group. The viral shedding time was significantly different between experimental group and control group (11.90 vs.12.58, P <0.05). In the experimental group, the median administration time since the first positive test for SARS-CoV-2 was three days, ranging from 0 to 15 days. There was no obvious adverse effect associated with the spray of IFN α-2b. The univariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the administration time since the first positive test ≤3 days was a protective factor associated with viral shedding time (HR 0.81 95% CI 0.74-0.87, P <0.05). Subgroup analysis showed that the viral shedding time was 10.41 (4.00-16.00) days in the ≤3 days group, which was significantly less than that in the control group (12.58, 95% CI: 7.00-19.15, P <0.0001) and in the >3 days group (13.56, 95%CI: 7.00-22.25, P <0.0001). Conclusions: IFN α-2b spray shortened the viral shedding time of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant when administrated within three days since the first positive test for SARS-CoV-2.

Early Negativization of SARS-CoV-2 Infection by Nasal Spray of Seawater plus Additives: The RENAISSANCE Open-Label Controlled Clinical Trial.

Background: COVID-19 is an asymptomatic condition in 40% of cases, and most symptomatic patients present with mild/moderate disease not requiring hospitalization or intensive care, especially during the Omicron wave, when the hospitalization rate was estimated to be 0.3%. The main port of entry for SARS-CoV-2 in the human body is the nasal cavity and the upper respiratory tract is affected since the early stages of the infection. Nasal irrigation or aerosol by isotonic or hypertonic saline solution is a traditional therapeutic approach for respiratory or nasal inflammation, also featured by prophylactic properties against upper respiratory infections. Methods: We conducted a prospective open-label controlled study to assess the superiority of an already existing medication (Tonimer Lab Panthexyl 800)-a sterile hypertonic solution containing seawater, xylitol, panthenol and lactic acid-to reduce the viral shedding time in patients affected by asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. COVID-19 patients (N = 108) were split into two groups: a treatment arm (50 participants receiving standard of care plus nasal spray 3 times/day with Tonimer Lab Panthexyl 800) and a control arm (58 participants receiving standard of care but nasal spray with Tonimer Lab Panthexyl 800). The two groups, both testing initially positive for SARS-CoV-2 at real-time PCR (RT-PCR) on nasal swab, were followed up over time to assess the daily number of positive swab tests turning negative (study endpoint). Treatment effectiveness at various time lags since the first positive RT-PCR swab test was measured by rate of events in the experimental arm (EER) and in the control arm (CER), absolute risk increase (ARI) = (EER - CER), and number needed to treat (NNT) = (1/ARI). To investigate the endpoint, we used logistic and Cox regression models, expressing the result as odds ratio (OR) and hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (95%CI), respectively. The symptoms recorded with a modified COVID-Q questionnaire at both diagnosis and first negative antigenic swab test were compared in each group (treated versus controls) by exact symmetry test. Results: During the first five days of treatment, COVID-19 patients treated with Tonimer Lab Panthexyl 800 were more likely to become negative two days before controls. According to NNT, four subjects had to be treated for five days to achieve the study endpoint in one individual. The negativization rate in patients treated with Tonimer Lab Panthexyl 800 was significantly higher than patients' treated with standard of care alone (OR = 7.39, 95%CI: 1.83-29.8; HR = 6.12, 95%CI: 1.76-21.32). There was no evidence of side effects. Conclusions: Nasal spray with Tonimer Lab Panthexyl 800 was effective against SARS-CoV-2, stopping viral shedding in the treatment arm two days before the control group. This treatment should be continued for at least five days after the first positive swab test for SARS-CoV-2.

Discriminant models for the prediction of postponed viral shedding time and disease progression in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 infection can cause life-threatening respiratory disease. This study aimed to fully characterize the clinical features associated with postponed viral shedding time and disease progression, then develop and validate two prognostic discriminant models. METHODS: This study included 125 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, for whom 44 parameters were recorded, including age, gender, underlying comorbidities, epidemiological features, laboratory indexes, imaging characteristics and therapeutic regimen, et al. Fisher's exact test and Mann-Whitney test were used for feature selection. All models were developed with fourfold cross-validation, and the final performances of each model were compared by the Area Under Receiving Operating Curve (AUROC). After optimizing the parameters via L2 regularization, prognostic discriminant models were built to predict postponed viral shedding time and disease progression of COVID-19 infection. The test set was then used to detect the predictive values via assessing models' sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Sixty-nine patients had a postponed viral shedding time (> 14 days), and 28 of 125 patients progressed into severe cases. Six and eleven demographic, clinical features and therapeutic regimen were significantly associated with postponed viral shedding time and disease progressing, respectively (p < 0.05). The optimal discriminant models are: y1 (postponed viral shedding time) = - 0.244 + 0.2829x1 (the interval from the onset of symptoms to antiviral treatment) + 0.2306x4 (age) + 0.234x28 (Urea) - 0.2847x34 (Dual-antiviral therapy) + 0.3084x38 (Treatment with antibiotics) + 0.3025x21 (Treatment with Methylprednisolone); y2 (disease progression) = - 0.348-0.099x2 (interval from Jan 1st,2020 to individualized onset of symptoms) + 0.0945x4 (age) + 0.1176x5 (imaging characteristics) + 0.0398x8 (short-term exposure to Wuhan) - 0.1646x19 (lymphocyte counts) + 0.0914x20 (Neutrophil counts) + 0.1254x21 (Neutrphil/lymphocyte ratio) + 0.1397x22 (C-Reactive Protein) + 0.0814x23 (Procalcitonin) + 0.1294x24 (Lactic dehydrogenase) + 0.1099x29 (Creatine kinase).The output ≥ 0 predicted postponed viral shedding time or disease progressing to severe/critical state. These two models yielded the maximum AUROC and faired best in terms of prognostic performance (sensitivity of78.6%, 75%, and specificity of 66.7%, 88.9% for prediction of postponed viral shedding time and disease severity, respectively). CONCLUSION: The two discriminant models could effectively predict the postponed viral shedding time and disease severity and could be used as early-warning tools for COVID-19.

Characteristics of patients affecting the duration of positivity at SARS-CoV-2: a cohort analysis of the first wave of epidemic in Italy.

OBJECTIVES: to investigate the characteristics of patients affecting the duration of positivity test by RT-PCR in the population of Piedmont, a Region of North-West of Italy. DESIGN: observational cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: from the administrative database of the regional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance system, a cohort of all patients who tested positive by a RT-PCR assay to SARS-CoV-2 occurring from 22.02.2020 to 30.09.2020 in the Piedmont Region (N. 29,292) was obtained. The cohort has been linked to the hospital discharge database and to the vital statistics database. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: outcome of the study was the risk of non negativization, estimated by fitting Generalizing Estimating Equation model (GEE), a longitudinal model which consider for each subject several records collected on fixed time intervals 15, 30, 45 or 60+ days from the first positive test. Negativization was defined as the condition in which two consecutive samples taken from the patient at least 24 hours apart were negative for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: the median duration of positive RT-PCR was 27 days. A higher median of days until positive persistence was observed in people over 80 (34 days, IQR 25-49), female (28 days, IQR 18-40), symptomatic patients (28 days, IQR 19-40), hospitalized people (32 days, IQR 21-44), patients with Charlson's index >0 (34 days, IQR 23-49), patients host of elderly nursing homes (37 days, IQR 25-51). In the GEE multivariable model, the variables associated to the non negativization at all times intervals were: older age (at 15th day: class 65+, OR 2.56, 95%CI 2.39-2.74), female gender (at 15th day: OR 1.12, 95%CI 1.06-1.18), and to be hospitalized for COVID-19 (at 15th day: OR 1.38, 95%CI 1.29-1.48). The presence of comorbidities and of symptoms were associate with the non negativization at 15th day (respectively, class 4+: OR 1.29, 95%CI 1.08-1.56 and symptoms: OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.13-1.27), but not at 45th day. CONCLUSIONS: older age, female gender, presence of comorbidities and severity of disease (proxy hospitalization for COVID-19) were risk factors for non negativization at all times intervals. The presence of symptoms was a risk factors for the non negativization after 2 weeks from the first diagnosis and not at 45th day. Using a longitudinal model for the analysis of the dataset, it is possible to compare the weight of the variables included in the model at different times and correct an overestimation of the attributable risk after the first considered time interval.

Characteristics of Viral Shedding Time in SARS-CoV-2 Infections: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: The viral shedding time (VST) of SARS-CoV-2 mainly determines its transmission and duration of infectiousness. However, it was heterogeneous in the existing studies. Here, we performed a meta-analysis to comprehensively summarize the VST of SARS-CoV-2. Methods: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, MedRxiv, BioRxiv, CNKI, CSTJ, and Wanfang up to October 25, 2020, for studies that reported VSTs of SARS-CoV-2. Pooled estimates and 95% CIs for the VSTs were calculated using log-transformed data. The VSTs in SARS-CoV-2 infections based on different demographic and clinical characteristics, treatments and specimens were stratified by subgroup analysis. Results: A total of 35 studies involving 3,385 participants met the inclusion criteria. The pooled mean VST was 16.8 days (95% CI: 14.8-19.4, I2 = 99.56%) in SARS-CoV-2 infections. The VST was significantly longer in symptomatic infections (19.7 days, 95% CI: 17.2-22.7, I2 = 99.34%) than in asymptomatic infections (10.9 days, 95% CI: 8.3-14.3, I2 = 98.89%) (P < 0.05). The VST was 23.2 days (95% CI: 19.0-28.4, I2 = 99.24%) in adults, which was significantly longer than that in children (9.9 days, 95% CI: 8.1-12.2, I2 = 85.74%) (P < 0.05). The VST was significantly longer in persons with chronic diseases (24.2 days, 95% CI: 19.2-30.2, I2 = 84.07%) than in those without chronic diseases (11.5 days, 95% CI: 5.3-25.0, I2 = 82.11%) (P < 0.05). Persons receiving corticosteroid treatment (28.3 days, 95% CI: 25.6-31.2, I2 = 0.00%) had a longer VST than those without corticosteroid treatment (16.2 days, 95% CI: 11.5-22.5, I2 = 92.27%) (P = 0.06). The VST was significantly longer in stool specimens (30.3 days, 95% CI: 23.1-39.2, I2 = 92.09%) than in respiratory tract specimens (17.5 days, 95% CI: 14.9-20.6, I2 = 99.67%) (P < 0.05). Conclusions: A longer VST was found in symptomatic infections, infected adults, persons with chronic diseases, and stool specimens.

A Small-Scale Medication of Leflunomide as a Treatment of COVID-19 in an Open-Label Blank-Controlled Clinical Trial.

We recently reported that inhibitors against human dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) have broad-spectrum antiviral activities including their inhibitory efficacies on SARS-CoV-2 replication in infected cells. However, there are limited data from clinical studies to prove the application of DHODH inhibitors in Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. In the present study, we evaluated Leflunomide, an approved DHODH inhibitor widely used as a modest immune regulator to treat autoimmune diseases, in treating COVID-19 disease with a small-scale of patients. Cases of 10 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients of moderate type with obvious opacity in the lung were included. Five of the patients were treated with Leflunomide, and another five were treated as blank controls without a placebo. All the patients accepted standard supportive treatment for COVID-19. The patients given Leflunomide had a shorter viral shedding time (median of 5 days) than the controls (median of 11 days, P = 0.046). The patients given Leflunomide also showed a significant reduction in C-reactive protein levels, indicating that immunopathological inflammation was well controlled. No obvious adverse effects were observed in Leflunomide-treated patients, and they all discharged from the hospital faster than controls. This preliminary study on a small-scale compassionate use of Leflunomide provides clues for further understanding of Leflunomide as a potential antiviral drug against COVID-19.